Tuesday, September 29, 2009
I will look for fear buying as a sign we are heading into a new stage with gold. When large numbers of people start seeing it as some kind of last available shelter from the falling sky I might want to edge closer to the exit door.
I remember back in the fall and winter of 08', alot of investment advisers for wealthy, high-end people were saying their clients were asking about Krugerrands and gold Maples. Those were the upper-class folks. I think we need to see more average joe-six pack types buying coins before we can talk about a real bubble.
Gold: Signs of a Bubble?
Monday, September 28, 2009
He likes Asian equities and of course, commodities. He advised people to buy physical gold and to store it out of the country.
On the subject of inflation, it seems to me that the 'lame-stream' media is becoming more accepting of the view that the dollar is going to lose significant value over the coming years. I suppose there will be a bubble in gold at some point, when everyone will be running to it, but I'm sure that day has yet to come.
Marc Faber Takes on Krugman, Links Bernanke and Mugabe
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Faber Says ‘High’ U.S. Deficit Will Spur Inflation
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Friday, September 11, 2009
Interesting how it is mentioned that gold is being promoted to the common man in China. (I bet Jim Cramer is giving the ole' bullish 'boo-yeah' to some financial stock as we speak) :
"As recently as 2002, the private ownership of gold was prohibited in China. You could be jailed if caught with any in your possession. Beginning in 2009, in a stunning about-face, the central government removed all restrictions. In fact, as Mineweb and other sources report now it’s actively pushing folks to buy some personal metal, with China's Central Television, the main state-owned television company, running news programs cum[sic] infomercials, letting the public know just how easy it is to purchase gold and silver as an investment."
Article : What The Heck Is Going On With China
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Two important points I want to emphasize :
1) China wants to decrease their exposure to the dollar (bearish for the dollar)
2) China is looking at gold as one of the many places they could park all that money (bullish for gold)
Here's an interesting excerpt. (The man quoted is Cheng Siwei, a former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee in China) :
"“Gold is definitely an alternative, but when we buy, the price goes up. We have to do it carefully so as not to stimulate the markets,” he added.
The comments suggest that China has become the driving force in the gold market and can be counted on to buy whenever there is a price dip, putting a floor under any correction."
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Dr. Martenson makes some guesses on why people in the mainstream media are always attacking gold - financial self interest being one of them. Whatever the reason, I think that this tendency to trash gold comes from very few people initially (just like a lot of 'views' and 'opinions' we see in the media) and then is simply repeated by the rest of the talking heads.
I know one thing. Gold (and other precious metals, most notably, silver) are excellent means of defending your wealth from the stealth theft that is inflation. So it would make sense that the Masters of the Universe would want us peasant folk to avoid it and invest our money in Goldman Sachs and the like.
Saturday, September 5, 2009
It's good to see guys like this doing an end run around the talking heads of CNBC and speaking straight to the people. Viva la internet!
Link to Video
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Nichols : "We are bullish on gold for the next few years, largely because of our reading of the macroeconomic situation - and the high probability of an overly stimulative monetary policy for years to come. But a more positive official section attitude - with some countries wishing to increase the proportions of official reserves held in gold - is simply one more support for a much higher price over the next several years."
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
I have heard the argument made that we will have a big bull run as a result of all this money being created and all the CNBC types will pump it as the return of good times. Then we will have an even bigger crash. Based on the enthusiasm with which the powers that be have provided more dope to the addict rather than let the bastard sweat the junk out of his system, I concur.
I also think that the social mood has a significant effect on the stock market. And this article is one example of the darkening of that mood. I think Obama will be a 'one-termer'.
Mr Farrell also writes about how this will happen :
"The culprit? The Fed, Ferguson says: "Without easy credit creation a true bubble cannot occur. That is why so many bubbles have their origins in the sins of omission and commission of central banks." So the next bubble (and meltdown) is virtually certain, thanks to Washington's $23.7 trillion explosion in debt."
It is too damn easy for people to get credit these days - too easy to go into debt. This does not make for a sound economy (though I imagine it makes certain parties quite rich).
I wish I knew exactly how to trade gold in light of all the inflation vs. deflation debate going on. No one can say for sure how it will play out. (Marc Faber has said there will be deflation first - then inflation through the roof). I think he's right and I would have no problem putting 5-20 % of my net worth in gold and silver and leaving it for 5 or 10 years. But he also has predicted volatility in all asset classes, just as a natural part of navigating the rough seas we find ourselves in there days.
For many of us, the best advice is probably to try not to figure out the short term and focus on the fundamentals : FUBAR.