I have actually been bearish for over 10 years. I was pessimistic even back in the 90's and the reason is simple :
Industrialized economies have below replacement birthrates. In Japan this simply means there will be fewer Japanese years from now then there are today (and that there will be insufficient workers to pay for the huge number of old people). But in the West, the insane solution to below replacement birthrates has been to bring in unskilled people from poor 3rd world countries. So the West not only has a problem with birthrates, but the 'solution' that has been pursued ensures that Western countries will be burdened by new populations which are either a) not sufficiently productive to keep the economy expanding, or b) are actually net consumers of resources. An added twist to this is that diverse societies are fraught with ethnic conflict so social/political stability in the West will be largely destroyed by this immigration and the political and intellectual charlatans that make a living off it.
You don't need a spreadsheet for this stuff.
16 hours ago