The Herd Moveth Goldwards ...

For those of us who have been advocating gold and silver for some time now, one of the 'turning points' we wait for is when the general public starts to get interested in precious metals. The trouble, currently, is with the Euro. And no doubt, many Europeans are wondering if they should 'save' with Euro bucks at all anymore. Well, America is next.
I feel like I'm at the gold party, more people have just entered the hall, the music is a bit louder, and the revelers are dancing with a bit more energy. I'm still drinking my drink and enjoying the spectacle, but if it was possible to have a nice recognizable juncture where the party goes into a new phase - this is it.

America Wakes Up to Gold

Some Basic Investment Advice from Dr. Faber

If you follow Marc Faber in the news you quickly notice that he has the habit of repeating himself. That's what someone with a good point tends to do. One of the overriding themes in his commentary is that governments (namely the American one) are printing like there's no tomorrow (maybe there isn't).

It's not a complex concept to understand. Even the caveman economist can explain it : Print lots of green paper + economy not grow = inflation.

2 + 2 = 4.

Lots of inflation = gold good.

Forget US Stocks-Buy Gold Every Month 'Forever': Marc Faber - CNBC

Interview on Banks, Gold, Inflation and More

Christopher K. Potter (of Northern Border Capital Management Inc.) gives his thoughts on the gold world and where he thinks the price might go.

21st Century Alchemy

Pig Slaughter

Dr. Faber lowers the boom, gloom and doom!

Here Swiss investor Marc Faber expresses concern that the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) might default and that the Euro could be hit hard by such an occurrence. He points out that before a country defaults they often print a lot of money and this results in hyperinflation.

He also mentions how one way for a government to distract attention from the destruction of the country's economy is to go to war. I guess there comes a time when even the Super Bowl halftime show cannot keep them all in awe. Unfortunately the United States has a penchant for invading certain countries these days. If I lived in the Middle East, I'd get ready to duck. If I lived in the PIIGS, I'd buy a little gold and silver.

Other Things to Store (Besides Gold)

Gold is a sensible part of any investment portfolio but I encourage people to look at other alternative investments that will work commensurate with gold in securing and safeguarding your life and wealth.

One of these is food. There are various reasons why it makes sense to store a reasonable supply of food in your home.

1. Your going to eat it anyways. It is simply practical to have 20 cans of tomato sauce if you make pizza often. Storing it means you don't have to go to the shop as often.

2. The price of food has consistently risen over time, and many think it will continue to rise. If you buy a can of beans in January and come August when you actually eat it, the price of beans has risen, you saved yourself money.

3. Buying opportunities. When you have to buy some canned corn for the dinner your planning, you have to buy at whatever price it's selling at in the store you go to. When you have corn stored up, you don't have to buy at random times; you can hold off until you see a really low price at some store that is trying to unload a bunch of extra stock (this happens with regularity). Storing foods allows you to take advantage of these opportunities.

4. Food shortages. History is replete with cases of food shortages and (just like with the story in the previous post) it is hubris to think that it can never happen to you, your community and your nation. Having food stored up means you have a cushion against any such 'disruption' in the food supply. Remember, food production and harvest is subject to all sorts of variables and changes in weather and can cause many people to go hungry.

"Food Crisis" Warning in India

A Short Story About Gold

Sometimes I think the dismissive attitude many people have towards gold is due to an arrogant attitude that bad things only happen to people in other countries, and that they are somehow invulnerable.

Asset Preservation : Why Americans Need Gold

Currencies and Rumours of Currencies

There has been a lot of talk about a new currency for the world, something to act as an alternative to the dollar. The article I am linking to today is just one out of countless articles now swirling around the net where some official person or bureaucracy calls for a new currency.

The one thing I can say on all this is that we should not get ahead of ourselves. By that I mean : Yes the US dollar is and will continue to decline into insignificance, but that is a long process. The world has been using the greenback for oil and other things for quite some time now and you don't just switch over to something else in one fell swoop. Moreover, China and others have significant dollar holdings and though they would like to get out of them, that too cannot happen instantaneously.

I'm sure many gold bugs are pleased as punch to see gold now well over 1000$ but this process we have been predicting will happen over years.

UN calls for new reserve currency

A Picture Says a Thousand Words ...

(Special thanks to Jim Sinclair's Mineset for this image)

Interview with Byron King

This fellow worked as a geologist in the exploration and production division of a major oil company, so he has some views on gold from a 'geological' point of view. I never looked into the concept of 'peak gold' that much but it is something I've heard before. Byron King brings it up in this interview. In response to a question about why gold would go to 2000$ he said :

"Because we're in a world that appears to have encountered peak gold as well as peak oil. If you look at historical production, worldwide gold output reached a top right around the year 2000–2001. Overall output has declined and we're not replacing output from the big mines of the past. Despite discoveries here and there, miners have to dig deeper and deeper into the reserves."

He also mentioned inflation and interest in gold from China as reasons for being long gold.

His opinion on silver is that it should outperform gold percentage wise, an opinion I agree with. In fact I think many of us overlook silver, perhaps because decades of watching the Olympics have conditioned us into thinking gold is somehow better. I think everyone should have at least a sock full of coins stashed somewhere in their house.

Endless Stimulus and 2000$ Gold

The Arguments for and Against Gold

This is a good article that condenses a lot of the arguments for gold and finishes with a few links to a guy who does not like the metal. In it you will find comments from such luminaries as Alan Greenspan, Marc Faber, Adrian Ash and others.
I found the comments on gold in a deflationary environment interesting. I never really thought of deflation as being good for gold, I just knew I did not want to be at the mercy of a currency that I fundamentally do not believe in as a store of wealth. I wanted the stability of gold, and regardless of whatever deflation there was, I was sure that in the long run we would have inflation due to all the paper and digital dollars being created. But some of the pundits in this article say it doesn't matter if there is deflation or inflation, gold is a 'go-to' asset that will be much sought after.

Is Gold a Reasonable Investment?

Is Gold in a Bubble?

I would say not. Too many people are either ignorant of gold or view it negatively. (I like when the talking heads on CNBC refer to gold bugs as crazy survivalists sitting in a hole in the wilderness clutching a shotgun).

I will look for fear buying as a sign we are heading into a new stage with gold. When large numbers of people start seeing it as some kind of last available shelter from the falling sky I might want to edge closer to the exit door.

I remember back in the fall and winter of 08', alot of investment advisers for wealthy, high-end people were saying their clients were asking about Krugerrands and gold Maples. Those were the upper-class folks. I think we need to see more average joe-six pack types buying coins before we can talk about a real bubble.

Gold: Signs of a Bubble?

Mark Faber on How to Trade the Dollar : "This is the short of the century ..."

Some comments of note include Dr. Faber's belief that stocks will rise by about 7% per annum but any gains will be eaten by inflation. Also he repeated a criticism he has made of Bernanke and Greenspan numerous times in the past; that they have succeeded in creating a bubble in everything (that doesn't sound good).

He likes Asian equities and of course, commodities. He advised people to buy physical gold and to store it out of the country.

On the subject of inflation, it seems to me that the 'lame-stream' media is becoming more accepting of the view that the dollar is going to lose significant value over the coming years. I suppose there will be a bubble in gold at some point, when everyone will be running to it, but I'm sure that day has yet to come.

Marc Faber Takes on Krugman, Links Bernanke and Mugabe

Advice from Dr. Doom

Some sensible advice on how to hedge against inflation. Don't listen to the USA rah rah rah morons on CNBC who think the dollar is king just because they get teary-eyed when the Star Spangled Banner is playing. There are a lot of things about America I love and respect but it aint' the country it used to be and it is not a rising star right now - nor is its dollar.

Faber Says ‘High’ U.S. Deficit Will Spur Inflation

Inflation, Boom, Bust

Here is an article with a great quote from Ludwig von Mises on inflation and the different stages it goes through. We are destined to live in interesting times ...

The Crack-Up Boom

Peter Schiff on the Gold/Silver Rally

He makes the important point near the end that China is planning on dumping the dollar. That is sure to be a gradual process so perhaps 'dumping' is not quite the right verb to user but he is absolutely right.

It's good to see guys like this doing an end run around the talking heads of CNBC and speaking straight to the people. Viva la internet!

Link to Video

Gold in the News ...

Gold has been going sideways for awhile now and somethings gotta give. Here's an article speculating on where the give might go.

More crystal ball peering here.

Meltdown 2.0?

An article like this on a main-stream site like Marketwatch.com is worth a look. Mr Farrell argues that we are getting set up for a bigger meltdown in the near future. (Here is the article, it has two pages).

I have heard the argument made that we will have a big bull run as a result of all this money being created and all the CNBC types will pump it as the return of good times. Then we will have an even bigger crash. Based on the enthusiasm with which the powers that be have provided more dope to the addict rather than let the bastard sweat the junk out of his system, I concur.

I also think that the social mood has a significant effect on the stock market. And this article is one example of the darkening of that mood. I think Obama will be a 'one-termer'.

Mr Farrell also writes about how this will happen :

"The culprit? The Fed, Ferguson says: "Without easy credit creation a true bubble cannot occur. That is why so many bubbles have their origins in the sins of omission and commission of central banks." So the next bubble (and meltdown) is virtually certain, thanks to Washington's $23.7 trillion explosion in debt."

It is too damn easy for people to get credit these days - too easy to go into debt. This does not make for a sound economy (though I imagine it makes certain parties quite rich).

I wish I knew exactly how to trade gold in light of all the inflation vs. deflation debate going on. No one can say for sure how it will play out. (Marc Faber has said there will be deflation first - then inflation through the roof). I think he's right and I would have no problem putting 5-20 % of my net worth in gold and silver and leaving it for 5 or 10 years. But he also has predicted volatility in all asset classes, just as a natural part of navigating the rough seas we find ourselves in there days.

For many of us, the best advice is probably to try not to figure out the short term and focus on the fundamentals : FUBAR.

Brien Lundin of The Gold Newsletter on Gold, Inflation, Government Spending, and The Power of Greed Over Fear

Some highlights from The Gold Report's interview :

"While we certainly still have deflation, we're transitioning into an environment where the massive government spending and stimulus programs will create inflation."

"[The Markets] are moving toward a fear of inflation, or a mindset where they're preparing for the return of inflation due to the massive deficits, spending and currency creation."

"One of the things I tell people is that fear is a great motivator but greed is the greatest motivator of all. It's very surprising to many how quickly greed can return to the market. The worst feeling of all for investors is not that they may lose a portion of their investment, but that they will get left behind in a rally. They're very much trend-followers in that respect, and as we saw this spring with the rally in the US stock market and in commodities, the valuations quickly got far out of hand and very much divorced from underlying economic fundamentals."

"Perhaps the last week or so of July and the first couple of weeks in August we should get a bottom in metals prices and conversely, in the mining stocks. It will be kind of a buyer's market. Historically, it is a time when people can pick up bargains, and I think it's going to work out that way again."

"Going into the fall and, more importantly, into next year, I think the bullish factors are right for the Gold Price to perform in a very impressive fashion."

"... the only way to erase this debt is to[sic] through inflation. ... Trading partners that hold tremendous US Dollar reserves will realize this eventually. So, it's going to be a harrowing three to five years."

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"WITH A CAREER now spanning three decades in the investment markets, Brien Lundin serves as president and CEO of Jefferson Financial, a respected publisher of market analyses and producer of investment-oriented events.

Publisher and editor of Gold Newsletter, launched in 1971, Lundin now figures that the worst of the financial crisis has passed and that the market "generally" will not test new lows. In this exclusive chat with The Gold Report, Brien also says we may be surprised to see how quickly greed and speculation replace the fear and trepidation that have gripped the market for the past year or so."

Read the rest of the interview here.